BOSTON, June 21, 2013 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — With four days until the election, Democratic Congressman Ed Markey leads by 10 points over his Republican opponent Gabriel Gomez, 51 percent to 41 percent, according to a new poll by the Emerson College Polling Society. Markey appears poised to fill the MA US Senate seat vacated by Secretary of State John Kerry. The ECPS survey included 1,422 respondents with a 2.5 percent margin of error.
Felix Chen, President of ECPS, indicated the 10 point lead is a reflection of Markey's strong support among women voters. Fifty-five percent (55%) of women surveyed backed Markey's bid to become the next Massachusetts Senator while only 36% supported Gomez. Gomez's lack of support among women can be attributed to his comment in the first debate when he said he would support a Pro-Life Supreme Court Justice.
Voters are expecting Markey to win the election. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters, regardless of their preferences, believe Markey will beat Gomez. Only 28% believe Gomez will be next Tuesday's winner.
A majority of Independents said they would choose Gomez over Markey on Election Day (53% to 37%), however, in order to win the traditional Republican election strategy would need Gomez to beat Markey among independents by a 2 to 1 margin due to the near 4 to 1 Democrat to Republican voter registration advantage.
Jobs continue to be the most important issues in voters' mind. Thirty-four percent (34%) of the interviewees believe jobs should be a top priority in Massachusetts followed by Health Care (17%) the deficit (15%) and Education (14%). Voters appear to have more confidence in Markey to create Jobs than Gomez 50% to 41%.
The recent scandals in Washington D.C appear to have not made a major impact on Markey's favorability rating with a 53% favorable and a 41% unfavorable rating. Gabriel Gomez has a weaker favorable to unfavorable rating of 46% to 43%.
Social Security has been an issue Markey has attacked Gomez over during the campaign and voters over 60 are breaking toward Markey 53% to 38%.
Regional breakdowns show Markey continuing to have strong support in Boston (61% to 28%) and Western Mass (51% to 38%). This poll also indicates that Markey gained support in South Central and South Shore areas (51% to 42%), compared to three weeks ago when only 46% those surveyed in this area favored Markey. Both the North Central and North Shore areas continue to be statistical dead heats, while Markey leads Gomez by 4-points in Metro Boston (49% to 43%).
There also doesn't appear to be a hidden Latino vote for Gomez as Markey holds a 52% to 34% lead among this group and an overall 55%-31% among the minority voters.
Data was collected on June 19-20 2013 using an automated data collections system. The Massachusetts sample consisted of 1,422 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5% at a 95% confident level. The full survey and results are available at the ECPS's website. www.emersoncollegepollingsociety.com
About Emerson College Polling Society
Emerson College Polling Society is a student organization at Emerson College dedicated to formulating, administering, and analyzing public opinion polls. The results and analysis of this release are the sole views of Emerson College Polling Society and do not reflect the views of Emerson College as a whole.