BOSTON, Oct. 1, 2014 /PRNewswire/ — The road to Capitol Hill will not be an easy one for Democrat and political newcomer Seth Moulton. After shocking the political establishment by knocking out 18 year Democratic incumbent John Tierney in the Massachusetts 6th Congressional district in the Democratic primary he now finds himself trailing Republican Richard Tisei by 2- points (41% to 39%) in the latest Emerson College Polling Society (ECPS) survey. This is a significant improvement for Tisei, who trailed Moulton 44% to 36% in an ECPS poll published shortly before the primary earlier in September.
An "enthusiasm gap" is growing between the candidates, 50% of Tisei supporters said they were very enthusiastic about the race, as compared to 34% of Moulton supporters. This enthusiastic attitude of Tisei supporters may be attributed to the open seat, and Republican enthusiasm to win this particular congressional race for the first time in 18 years. Tisei lost the 6th District to Tierney in 2012 by a mere 1%.
Pocket book issues including jobs and taxes continue to be the top concern for voters; 30% identify the economy to be the top issue in the election. National security worries are also on people's minds – 23% identify defense and ISIS as the most important issue, a jump of 8% since the previous poll. The increased focus on security appears to benefit Tisei. Ironically, 52% of those who view defense/ISIS as the top priority support Tisei, as compared to 32% who support Moulton, who is an Iraq war veteran. Tisei also leads Moulton 46% to 33% on the issue of jobs and taxes.
Along party lines, Tisei holds an edge with independents – a key demographic group that accounts for 57% of the district's eligible voters. Among Independents, Tisei tops Moulton 50% to 30%.
A gender gap also exists among those polled. Women favor Moulton by eight points (42% to 34%) while men prefer Tisei by 15 points (50% to 35%). More Democrats than Republicans remain undecided about the race (18% to 11%), perhaps fallout from Tierney supporters who are disappointed by his loss.
Both candidates improved their favorability ratings, Tisei went from 48% to 53% favorable, and Moulton improved from 49% to 53%. Unfavorable numbers declined, from 32% to 25% (Tisei) and from 23% to 15% (Moulton).
Both Moulton and Tisei are far ahead of Independent Chris Stockwell, who only recently entered the race. : 27% of those surveyed had never heard of Stockwell, 7% viewed him favorably, and only 3% said they would vote for him if the election were held today.
Despite Tisei's slight lead over Moulton n this poll, 43% of respondents believe Moulton ultimately will win the general election in November. 35% think Tisei will win, and 2% pick Stockwell to prevail.
Asked which candidate they thought was a political outsider, 25% selected Stockwell, 22% Moulton, and 10% Tisei.
Both major candidates did well on their home turf. In the western part of the district, which includes his home in Wakefield, Tisei held a commanding lead, 53% to 33%. Moulton gained a 44% to 32% edge in the south, an area that includes his hometown (Marblehead) and current residence (Salem). The northern region was split 39% to 38% in favor of Moutlon.
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This Emerson College Polling Society Poll was conducted September 26-29. The polling sample consisted of 429 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.68% and a 95% confidence level, using an Interactive Voice Response (IRV) system. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com.
Media Contact: Aishwarya Ramani
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