BOSTON, May 24, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — The post-primary bounce for Republican U.S. Senate candidate Gabriel Gomez was short lived, according to a new Emerson College Polling Society survey, which shows Congressman Ed Markey (D) extending his lead to 12 points, 45 percent to 33 percent. This compares to a 6-point lead held by Markey just three weeks ago (42% to 36%). The Emerson College Polling Society survey included 867 respondents with a 3.24 margin of error.
Felix Chen, President of ECPS, said, "The data suggests that Markey's domination of the air waves with television ads are having the intended effect of allowing him to define his opponent, which has lowered the favorable opinion of Gomez, while increasing his own support from undecided voters."
The survey shows that more Independent voters moving toward Markey. In the May 1 poll, Gomez led this group by 21 points (46% to 25%) but now Gomez holds only an 11-point lead (43% to 32%) among Independents. Twenty-six percent (26%) of Independents remain undecided.
According to Juliet Albin, an ECPS analyst, "Gomez's overall favorability has dropped 4 points (from 45% to 41%) while his unfavorable opinion has increased by 10 points (25% to 35%)." Moreover, Markey has slightly increased his favorable opinion up to the 50% threshold, which according to Albin is a standard indicator of electoral success.
Chen identified a major factor in Markey's lead is the Congressman's increased support among men. In less than three weeks, Markey erased a 7-point deficit, and is now leading Gomez by 7 points among male voters (45%to 38%). Markey maintains strong support from women – with a 17-point lead (45% to 28%).
Regional breakdowns show Markey continuing to have strong support in Boston (54% to 20%) and in Western Mass (52% to 23%). This poll also indicates Markey pulling away in the South Central and South Shore areas (46% to 33%), as compared to three weeks ago when Markey held only a 2-point lead. Both the Metro Boston area and the North Central and North Shore areas are statistical dead heats.
Another concern for Gomez is that voters identify more with Democratic issues, such as Health Care, which increased in importance to 19 percent from 14 percent in the May 1st poll. The Deficit decreased in importance among those polled by 5 percent. Jobs (33%) continue to be the most important issue for voters.
The first scheduled debate between the two candidates is June 5, sponsored by WBZ and the Boston Globe. Albin suggests the debate to be Gomez's chance to change the momentum, but it could also be an opportunity for Markey to expand his lead with a good showing. ECPS will poll the results of the debate performances with an overnight poll to be published June 6.
Data was collected on May 20 – May 22, 2013 using an automated data collections system. The Massachusetts sample consisted of 867 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.26% at a 95% confident level. The full survey and results are available at the ECPS's website. www.emersoncollegepollingsociety.com
Emerson College Polling Society is a student organization at Emerson College dedicated to formulating, administering, and analyzing public opinion polls. The results and analysis of this release are the sole views of Emerson College Polling Society and do not reflect the views of Emerson College as a whole.
MEDIA CONTACT: Juliet Albin
617-824-3491
www.emersoncollegepollingsociety.com
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